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Monthly Commentary: April 2020

What happened:

  • The overall market rebounded as it usually does in a recessionary environment. The rally in the S&P 500 exceeded expectations bringing the year-to-date figure up from the crash lows we saw in March -31% bringing 2020 to a -9.85% on April 30th.
  • The holdings in Core Equity during April were TOTL, GOVT and KWEB.

What we did:

  • The indicators we watch got close to entries in our S&P500 exposure, but not close enough for comfort. That was the only allocation that could have signaled an entry.
  • Volatility and false signals still abound in these conditions, making it hard to invest safely for the long term just yet.

What is to come:

  • As since the beginning of this wild ride, we are monitoring our metrics at closer intervals. This doesn’t mean we will pull the trigger more often and get swindled into trading rather than investing. Our rebalancing decisions remain in-line with what worked in the last 20 years.
  • The main concern with this “stock market recovery” is that it seems to be pricing a full economic recovery, while we still don’t have a relief from the pandemic lockdown in the US, nor accepted treatment or vaccine for COVID-19, neither the unprecedented unemployment numbers. We are looking for solid confirmations in our algorithms before placing any confidence in this market.

Our article may include predictions, estimates or other information that might be considered forward-looking. While these forward-looking statements represent our current judgment on what the future holds, they are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which reflect our opinions only as of the date of this publication.